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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."