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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.